Friday, May 23, 2008

US economy cartoon





Source:http://www.cagle.com/news/Economy08/

The cartoon shows what are the troubles the US economy has experienced. Recession, inflation and problems faced by the Federal Reserve System (FED) (the subprime crsis) are weakening the US economy. Moreover, there are some hidden economic bubbles such as the dotcom and housing bubble, which make the situations even worse.

America's food retailers

The article is about the need for US food retailers to cut cost incurred by food wastage.

Supply-chain management


Shrink rapped


May 15th 2008 NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

America's food retailers should wage a tougher war on waste

WALK into almost any big supermarket in America and you will find a cornucopia of food. The mountains of fresh produce on display are a testament to shoppers' desire for choice and freshness—and retailers' desire to relieve them of their dollars. But behind the mouth-watering offerings lies a distasteful reality: billions of dollars' worth of food is dumped each year because of retailers' inefficiency.

The firms are not productively efficient, causing a surplus of food.

It is difficult to gauge quite how much waste—known as “shrink” in the industry's jargon—there is. Oliver Wyman, a consulting firm, puts the figure at 8-10% of total “perishable” goods in America. The Food Marketing Institute, an industry body, says such sales totalled $196 billion in 2006. That means food worth nearly $20 billion was dumped by retailers. In a report published on May 14th, the United Nations estimated that retailers and consumers in America throw away food worth $48 billion each year, and called upon governments everywhere to halve food wastage by 2025.

With food prices soaring and consumers tightening their belts, supermarkets' margins are under pressure. On May 13th Wal-Mart, America's biggest retailer, said its first-quarter sales rose by 10%, to $94 billion, but only after it slashed grocery prices by up to 30%. Its boss gave warning of harsher times ahead. Many retailers will need to cut costs, and tackling shrink seems a good way to do so.

Perishable food is a normal good, and it is relatively income elastic as compared to imperishable food. For example, fresh pineapple is more income elastic than pineapple can. The degree of necessity for perishable food is low, so it is price elastic. Thus, it is logical to increase price to increase total revenue. The US economy is weakening, so the demand for perishable food decreased. The price of food is soaring, therefore, there will be an increase in average variable cost and marginal cost. In order to maximise profit, the price should be higher. However, the price decreases by 30%. Therefore, the retailers may operate at a max-sale level so that they can minimise wastage.

Yet some firms are coy about the issue: Whole Foods, with sales of $6.6 billion and a reputation for fresh food, says its figures on waste are “proprietary”. Others point out that not all food is dumped. Kroger, a retailer based in Ohio with sales of $70 billion, gives 3,600 tons of fresh food a year to food banks.

Laudable though this is, it raises the question of why so much food is going to waste in the first place. After all, American supermarket chains have spent the past ten years or so installing inventory-management software, cold-storage systems and other supply-chain paraphernalia. Yet their shrink rates are still twice as big as those of European retailers.

One reason for this is structural, reckons Leigh Sparks of Stirling University in Britain. Food in America travels farther, increasing the risk it will rot in transit. Another reason is that American firms are less adept at capturing and using customer data to predict demand. And many American store managers believe high shrinkage is inevitable, given their enthusiasm for huge displays and the widest possible range of produce. “This feeds a vicious circle of more and more choice,” says Matthew Isotta of Oliver Wyman. And it can backfire if displays disguise rotten food or too much choice overwhelms customers.

The article suggests reasons for high shrinkage. Firstly, it is due to the longer period of transport. The perishable food has a higher chance to rot. Secondly, maybe the market in the US is not so competitive, so they become complacent and do not want to put in much effort to do marketing research. (they think their marketing research is good enough to gain a satisfactory profit in the market) Also, the belief "high shrinkage is inevitable" makes them unwilling to improve on reducing wastage.

A few firms have made a concerted effort to reduce shrink. One is Stop & Shop/Giant-Landover, a retailer with sales of $17 billion owned by Holland's Ahold. Launched in 2006, its initiative stressed that making its supply-chain leaner would enable the chain to offer customers the freshest possible products. This helped win over internal sceptics. “It really was a huge culture-shift for our people,” says José Alvarez, the firm's boss.

Stop & Shop looked across its entire fresh-food supply chain and reduced everything from the size of suppliers' boxes to the number of products on display, which fell by almost a fifth. Last year the chain cut shrink by almost a third, saving over $50m and eliminating 36,000 tons of rotten food, while improving customer satisfaction. Other retailers would do well to follow Stop & Shop's example—or watch as shrink takes an even bigger chunk out of their profits.

One way to reduce shrinkage is do supply-chain "rationalisation", so the retailer can cut unnecessary cost in this way. The retailers must do this because their profit may decrease as the price of food may continue increasing, leading to higher cost of production.

Yuhan

Thursday, May 22, 2008

article reviews


enjoy the holiday ahead:)
yuting

Article reviews


Hello:) Inspired by the econs tutorial, i did two brief follow-up article reviews on ipod and reebok. Here they are
Yuting

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

VBC experience

I am not altogether sure how relevant this post will be, but since VBC (Virtual Business Challenge) is a Hwa Chong- initiated entrepreneuship game that intends to simulate the real business world, I would like to talk a little bit about it. Having played both the preliminary round and semi-final round, I think there is much to be learned from the economic's point of view. The following address is the link to a VBC forum where the leading team shared their invaluable insights over maket analysis. So just in case if you are interested.

(http://www.hcine2twork.org/vbc/main.php?topic=17).Okay, back to the original topic, this is done together with my other VBC teammate. The learning points of VBC:

1. Cartel
In the preliminary round of the game, there existed a cartel that basically co-monopolised all four makets. Since free trading of technology was allowed, the cartel was working well in the sense that once one of the cartel members buys develops technology, it can share with the rest in no time, which means that the whole cartel can enjoy cutting-edge advantage in R&D while only one fifth of the money is spent (five of them took turns to buy tech in the game). So together, they were able to monopolise the market and earn supernormal profit.

However, in the game/and most probably in the real world, ideal situation never occurs. I noticed that it is usually the case when one company develops a new tech and only shared with its cartel members after it had 'owned' the market for some time. So does it violate the agreement inside the cartel? I am not sure, but you may want to dig out more from law books. (maybe?)

At the same time, the idea of cartel may not work well in all circumstances.

Firstly, there will be an optimum number of members for the cartel. That is because the more the members, the smaller market share each company is to have, as well as the less profit it is to enjoy. Also, a large cartel means that it is more difficult to oversee all its members' activities, so violating the agreement due to tempetation to earn greater maket share (by lowering its price) may be possible. That is to say, a cartel will only work well when all its members are cooperative.

2. Optimum profit
Optimum profit is not gained when you own the market, but when you achive the point where MC=MR.In VBC, we were not required to draw graphs to see where MC=MR, but rather to find an optimum point for profit from price and quantity. I am not altogether sure whether that is what happened in the real world as some companies seem wish to expand itself continously. One possible explanation is that its start-up cost is so high that it has a far-reach downward slope for its LRAC/LRMC. That is why the type of companies I mentioned just now are mainly low cost industries like fast food industry.

3. Small companies
Even though for the both rounds, the markets were monopolised quite early in the game (around one third of the total game period).

However, that does not necessarily mean the end of the game for small companies like us. Indeed, in times when the markets are monopolised, most of the companies are facing the same situation as us, so whether to win or lose largely depend on how one switches its focus.

Econs notes teaches us that in such situations, small companies need to differentiate their products so that they enjoy a niche market that few companies can compete with them. That is the same for VBC. Since the big companies have already developed various technologies, it is almost impossible for us to compete with them technologicalwise, meaning the tech we develop may not win us back enough money to compensate the amount it is paid at the first place. So what we did was to adjust promotion rate to optimum (something like differentiate product).

Xinyi

Monday, May 19, 2008

Video on Price discrimination

A really nice video for those who are stunned by the many lines in your econs notes (like me) and have no idea how to draw 1 properly from scratch... and for those who didn't pay attention in lectures (*AHEM* not like me)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NNGP9gWnSg

And I like his demand curves, very inelastic... sorry being sarcastic...

Almost forgot, Jia Guang = DiNo$@UrKiNg... I mean, I posted this message...

Article Review - Nokia Rockets Past Rivals

Nokia Rockets Past Rivals
By Jack Ewing
Soaring sales in emerging markets and growth in high-end phones are bolstering the Finnish company's already daunting lead -- but iPhone is on its mind.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,530951,00.html

NOKIA ROKETS PAST RIVALS discusses the market power and influence of Nokia as a mobile phone manufacturer, and its potential rivals.

It is inferred from Jack Ewing’s article that Nokia is considered as a monopolist since it has had 40 percent market share by 2007. This percentile even increased in the first quarter of 2008.

Furthermore, this article explains how Nokia maintains as a monopoly power through barriers to entry. It is reported that Nokia’s basic phones sell for less than $40, which other firms cannot compete with.

Mobile phone industry is the one that involves very high fixed costs. Startup expenditures such as R&D, designing and advertisement are necessary for a mobile phone producer.

When a firm expands, it will enjoy economies of scale while the fixed costs will spread over a larger quantity, leading to a lower average cost.


Since mobile phone industry involves very high setup costs, as the diagram above shown, the LRAC will continue to fall as output increased over a wide range. Nokia as the largest firm in this industry, enjoys substantial EOS and a much lower average production cost than its rivals.

In addition, greater volume creates even greater economies of scale, and generates more money to invest in research and development. It will be very difficult for competitors to manufacture as many different models of phones as cheaply and still make a profit.

Nokia is earning more and more, it has a profit of $2.68 billion in the 4th quarter of 2007. The reason is suggested by the author: the mobile-phone industry appears surprisingly impervious to global economic uncertainty.

It implies that the demand is price inelastic, Nokia can easily make a larger supernormal profit by raising the price.

However, Nokia faces a fierce challenge from Apple’s iPhone.

” The wild card in the mobile-phone industry today is the Apple iPhone, which competes with Nokia's multimedia handsets, with sales of about 4 million units so far.”

Nokia attempts to maintain its monopolistic position by launching a handset this year that uses the touch-screen technology. This is to prevent Apple to seize a large market share by its unique product iPhone.

Moreover, I personally believe that Apple is not able to undermine Nokia’s position because the iPhone only aims for high-end market, while Nokia has different models over all prices.





APPENDIX:
Nokia Rockets Past Rivals
By Jack Ewing


Nokia's market share is soaring.
Nokia extended its already formidable dominance of the global handset business on Jan. 24, announcing it had achieved 40 percent market share in the fourth quarter of 2007. But perhaps the biggest surprise was that the Finnish company achieved this long-promised and psychologically important milestone while also becoming more profitable.
Thanks to soaring sales in emerging markets, as well as growth in high-end phones, Nokia boosted profit in the fourth quarter of 2007 by 44 percent, to $2.68 billion (€1.82 billion), on sales of $23 billion. At the same time, average selling prices grew, and the operating margin on mobile phones rose to 25 percent, vs. 17.8 percent a year earlier.
It was an impressive performance that pushed up Nokia shares 12.5 percent in New York trading, to $36.48. But Nokia executives want more. "We're targeting to increase our market share in 2008," Chief Financial Officer Rick Simonson told BusinessWeek, adding, "We're going to make sure that's profitable, sustainable market-share increase." Simonson wouldn't say how much Nokia plans to lift its share of the global market.

Handset Market Stays Steady
Any increase seems like an audacious goal, but Nokia may pull it off. Rival Motorola is cratering and reported disastrous results on Jan. 23. Meanwhile, thriving competitors such as Samsung Electronics and Sony Ericsson have a way to go before they can match Nokia in emerging markets, where basic phones sell for less than $40.
At the same time, the mobile-phone industry appears surprisingly impervious to global economic uncertainty, because consumers regard phones as necessities and scrimp elsewhere if they have to buy new handsets. Mobile phone sales grew a remarkable 15.8 percent last year, to 1.15 billion units, according to market tracker ABI Research. "I don't see anything in the near future that is going to negatively affect what they're doing," says Carolina Milanesi, research vice-president at market research consultancy Gartner.
Not that other companies aren't eyeing markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America where mobile-phone use is exploding. On Jan. 24, Sony Ericsson announced four new low-cost phones for the Indian market. But Milanesi says it will take time for competitors to build up the marketing and distribution networks they need to challenge Nokia. "It's not just about having the right products, but also making sure you have a distribution strategy to get products into the hands of customers," she says.
Success with Siemens Joint Venture
In addition, Nokia's growing market share only increases its clout. Greater volume creates even greater economies of scale, and generates more money to invest in research and development. It will be very difficult for competitors to manufacture as many different models of phones as cheaply and still make a profit. "We've shown we're the only ones who can consistently be profitable in the low end," Simonson says.
Nokia also made progress in the turnaround of Nokia Siemens Networks, its joint venture with Munich-based Siemens. In the fourth quarter, the unit, which supplies equipment for mobile networks, broke even on an operating basis and even showed a profit of $96 million on sales of $6.7 billion, not including one-time items. For the full year, NSN had an operating loss of $1.9 billion, on sales of $19.6 billion, because of charges associated with job cuts and other costs of creating the joint venture.
The one big blot on the otherwise triumphant earnings report was Nokia's performance in the US. Because of its limited portfolio of phones designed for US mobile networks, pocketbooks, and tastes, Nokia has never enjoyed the same dominance there as in the rest of the world. Sales of Nokia handsets to North America plunged 13.6 percent in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier, to 5.1 million units.
Keeping an Eye on the iPhone
Nokia has said it plans to redouble its efforts to boost US sales, but some analysts are skeptical whether the company can succeed. "Despite repeated declarations from senior management that Nokia will recover its position in the North American market, it has so far failed to do so," ABI Research said in a note.
The wild card in the mobile-phone industry today is the Apple iPhone, which competes with Nokia's multimedia handsets. With sales of about 4 million units so far, the iPhone hasn't yet overtaken Nokia's top-of-the-line N95, which has sold more than 5.5 million units since its launch in March, 2007. Still, iPhone sales are impressive considering the product still is not available in much of the world and can cost hundreds of dollars more than an N95, depending on the operator's plan.
Nokia is clearly paying attention. It will launch a handset this year that uses some of the same touch-screen technology that has won accolades for the iPhone, Simonson said, declining to give specifics. The company is also moving aggressively into music services as a way to counter Apple's iTunes. Says Simonson of the iPhone, "There is innovation in that device and we're very respectful of that." But on Jan. 24, at least, the market showed its respect for Nokia's powerful execution.